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The 40 seats most at risk for the Conservatives

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The final YouGov constituency-by-constituency poll published on Tuesday showed a dramatic fall in the projected Conservative majority, from 68 to 28 seats. 

It suggests the election is much closer than was thought.

Part of the reason is tactical voting, with Lib Dems switching to Labour. 

But tactical voting is a game we can all play. 

These are the 40 seats which the Conservatives are best-placed to take from Labour — and where Brexit Party voters should switch their allegiance to the Tories, or face a Marxist prime minister and the death of the Brexit dream.

And with YouGov saying as many as 16 Tory targets that could be missed thanks to votes for the Brexit Party, you need to check who your vote could hand power to… 

These are the 40 seats which the Conservatives are best-placed to take from Labour — and where Brexit Party voters should switch their allegiance to the Tories, or face a Marxist prime minister and the death of the Brexit dream

These are the 40 seats which the Conservatives are best-placed to take from Labour — and where Brexit Party voters should switch their allegiance to the Tories, or face a Marxist prime minister and the death of the Brexit dream

These are the 40 seats which the Conservatives are best-placed to take from Labour — and where Brexit Party voters should switch their allegiance to the Tories, or face a Marxist prime minister and the death of the Brexit dream

1. Ashton- under-Lyne

Lab maj: 11,295

New poll: Lab 45%

Con 33%

Vote Dan Costello to unseat Angela Rayner (pictured)

Vote Dan Costello to unseat Angela Rayner (pictured)

Vote Dan Costello to unseat Angela Rayner (pictured)

Brexit 13%

  • Vote Dan Costello to unseat Angela Rayner (right)

2. Bedford

Lab maj: 789

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 43%

Brexit 3%

  • Vote Ryan Henson to defeat Mohammad Yasin

3. Birmingham Northfield

Lab maj: 4,667

New poll: Lab 44%

Con 41%

Brexit 6%

  • Vote Gary Sambrook to unseat Richard Burden

4. Bishop Auckland

Lab maj: 502

New poll: Lab 42%

Con 47%

Brexit 8%

Vote Dehenna Davison to unseat Helen Goodman (pictured)

Vote Dehenna Davison to unseat Helen Goodman (pictured)

Vote Dehenna Davison to unseat Helen Goodman (pictured)

  • Vote Dehenna Davison to unseat Helen Goodman (right)

5. Blackpool South

Lab maj: 2,523

New poll: Lab 39%

Con 44%

Brexit 11%

  • Vote Scott Benton to unseat Gordon Marsden

6. Bolsover

Lab maj: 5,288

New poll: Lab 39%

Con 41%

Brexit 12%

  • Vote Mark Fletcher to unseat Dennis Skinner

7. Bolton North East

Lab maj: 3,797

New poll: Lab 44%

Con 44%

Brexit 6%

  • Vote Mark Logan to defeat David Crausby

8. Bradford South

Lab maj: 6,700

New poll: Lab 42%

Con 41%

Brexit 9%

  • Vote Narinder Singh Sekhon to defeat Judith Cummins

9. Bury North

Lab maj:4,375

New poll: Lab 45%

Con 43%

Brexit 6%

  • Vote James Daly to defeat James Frith

10. Clwyd South

Lab maj: 4,356

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 42%

Brexit 6%

  • Vote Simon Baynes to defeat Susan Elan Jones

11. Coventry North West

Lab maj: 8,580

New poll: Lab 45%

Con 41%

Brexit 6%

  • Vote Clare Golby to defeat Taiwo Owatemi

12. Crewe and Nantwich

Lab maj: 48

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 46%

Brexit 4%

  • Vote Kieran Mullan to defeat Laura Smith

13. Dagenham and Rainham

Lab maj: 4,652

New poll: Lab 41%

Con 42%

Brexit 10%

  • Vote Damian White to unseat Jon Cruddas

14. Delyn

Lab maj: 4,240

New poll: Lab 44%

Con 44%

Brexit 5%

  • Vote Rob Roberts to defeat David Hanson

15. Dewsbury

Lab maj: 3,321

New poll: Lab 45%

Con 43%

Brexit 5%

  • n Vote Mark Eastwood to unseat Paula Sherriff

16. Gedling

Lab maj: 4,694

New poll: Lab 44%

Con 43%

Brexit 6%

  • Vote Tom Randall to unseat Vernon Coaker

17. Great Grimsby

Lab maj: 2,565

New poll: Lab 41%

Con 42%

Brexit 11%

Vote Lia Nici to defeat Melanie Onn (pictured)

Vote Lia Nici to defeat Melanie Onn (pictured)

Vote Lia Nici to defeat Melanie Onn (pictured)

  • Vote Lia Nici to defeat Melanie Onn (right)

18. Hartlepool

Lab maj: 7,650

New poll: Lab 39%

Con 31%

Brexit 22%

  • Vote Stefan Houghton to defeat Mike Hill

19. Hyndburn

Lab maj: 5,815

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 41%

Brexit 10%

  • Vote Sarah Britcliffe to defeat Graham Jones

20. Ipswich

Lab maj: 831

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 46%

Brexit 5%

  • Vote Tom Hunt to defeat Sandy Martin

21. Keighley

Lab maj: 239

New poll: Lab 44%

Con 46%

Brexit 4%

  • Vote Robbie Moore to defeat John Grogan

22. Leigh

Lab maj: 9,554

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 39%

Brexit 11%

  • Vote James Grundy to defeat Joanne Platt

23. Lincoln

Lab maj: 1,538

New poll: Lab 45%

Con 44%

Brexit 5%

  • Vote Karl McCartney to defeat Karen Lee

24. Rother Valley

Lab maj: 3,882

Vote Alexander Stafford to defeat Sophie Wilson (pictured)

Vote Alexander Stafford to defeat Sophie Wilson (pictured)

Vote Alexander Stafford to defeat Sophie Wilson (pictured)

New poll: Lab 36%

Con 41%

Brexit 15%

  • Vote Alexander Stafford to defeat Sophie Wilson (left)

25. Scunthorpe

Lab maj: 3,431

New poll: Lab 41%

Con 45%

Brexit 9%

  • Vote Holly Mumby-Croft to defeat Nic Dakin

26. Sedgefield

Lab maj: 6,059

New poll: Lab 39%

Con 40%

Brexit 12%

  • Vote Paul Howell to defeat Phil Wilson

27. Stockton South

Lab maj: 888

New poll: Lab 45%

Con 45%

Brexit 6%

  • Vote Matt Vickers to defeat Paul Williams
Vote Jo Gideon to beat Gareth Snell (pictured)

Vote Jo Gideon to beat Gareth Snell (pictured)

Vote Jo Gideon to beat Gareth Snell (pictured)

28. Stoke-on-Trent Central

Lab maj: 3,897

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 41%

Brexit 10%

  • Vote Jo Gideon to beat Gareth Snell (right)

29. Stoke-on-Trent North

Lab maj: 2,359

New poll: Lab 40%

Con 45%

Brexit 8%

  • Vote Jonathan Gullis to unseat Ruth Smeeth

30. Stroud

Lab maj: 687

New poll: Lab 48%

Con 44%

Brexit 3%

Vote Siobhan Baillie to unseat David Drew (pictured)

Vote Siobhan Baillie to unseat David Drew (pictured)

Vote Siobhan Baillie to unseat David Drew (pictured)

  • Vote Siobhan Baillie to unseat David Drew (right)

31. Vale of Clwyd

Lab maj: 2,379

New poll: Lab 44%

Con 44%

Brexit 4%

  • Vote James Davies to defeat Chris Ruane

32. Warrington South

Lab maj: 2,549

New poll: Lab 45%

Con 44%

Brexit 4%

  • Vote Andy Carter to defeat Faisal Rashid

33. Warwick and Leamington

Lab maj: 1,206

New poll: Lab 46%

Con 42%

Brexit 2%

  • Vote Jack Rankin to defeat Matt Western

34. West Bromwich East

Lab maj: 7,713

New poll: Lab 44%

Con 39%

Brexit 8%

  • Vote Nicola Richards to defeat Ibrahim Dogus

35. West Bromwich West

Lab maj:4,460

New poll: Lab 38%

Con 43%

Brexit 12%

  • Vote Shaun Bailey to defeat James Cunningham

36. Wolverhampton North East

Lab maj:4,587

New poll: Lab 41%

Con 46%

Brexit 7%

  • Vote Jane Stevenson to defeat Emma Reynolds

37. Wolverhampton South West

Lab maj: 2,185

New poll: Lab 46%

Con 46%

Brexit 4%

  • Vote Stuart Anderson to defeat Eleanor Smith

38. Workington

Lab maj: 3,925

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 41%

Brexit 7%

  • Vote Mark Jenkinson to unseat Sue Hayman

39. Worsley and Eccles South

Lab maj: 8,379

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 41%

Brexit 7%

  • Vote Arnie Saunders to defeat Barbara Keeley

40. Wrexham

Lab maj: 1,832

New poll: Lab 43%

Con 44%

Brexit 5%

  • Vote Sarah Atherton to defeat Mary Wimbury

‘Retreat from key marginals Nigel – or we’ll never leave EU’

By Jason Groves, Political Editor for the Daily Mail 

‘Brexit Party voters could ‘throw away Brexit for ever’ unless they support Conservative candidates in dozens of seats today, polling shows.

Analysis of a major YouGov poll reveals that Nigel Farage’s party is on course to help Labour keep at least 26 seats that could otherwise be taken by the Tories.

In at least 12 more constituencies contested by the Brexit Party, the Tory lead over Labour is within the margin of error.

But if there’s a higher than expected defection of Brexit Party voters to the Tories, the number of seats up for taking by Boris Johnson’s candidates could rise to 40 or more.

Nigel Farage speaks on his mobile phone ahead of a general election campaign event in Doncaster on December 11

Nigel Farage speaks on his mobile phone ahead of a general election campaign event in Doncaster on December 11

Nigel Farage speaks on his mobile phone ahead of a general election campaign event in Doncaster on December 11

Mr Farage said yesterday his candidates had been deluged with thousands of messages from Mail readers urging them to step aside to enable Brexit.

Former business chief John Longworth, who was elected as a Brexit Party MEP this year, appealed to its supporters yesterday to back the Tories.

The ex-head of the British Chambers of Commerce, who was kicked out of the Brexit Party last week, said: ‘The Brexit Party are unlikely to win any seats, at most a couple. A vote for them is a vote to throw away Brexit for ever.’

Brexit Party co-founder Catherine Blaiklock also urged supporters to back the Tories.

Miss Blaiklock, who was kicked out of the party this year following an Islamophobia row, said its campaign was just a ‘monumental ego trip’ for Mr Farage and party chairman Richard Tice. She added: ‘Nigel has failed catastrophically.’

The YouGov poll, based on more than 100,000 interviews, suggests the Brexit Party has no hope of winning seats, but is on course to split the Leave vote in key marginals. In Bradford South, for example, the Conservatives appear to be one point behind Labour’s Judith Cummins, but the Brexit Party is polling 9 per cent.

In Hyndburn, the Tories are two points from ousting Labour’s Graham Jones in a seat where the Brexit Party appears to have 10 per cent support. Nationally, Brexit Party support is down to about 3 per cent. But in some seats it is still in double figures.

In Hartlepool, Mr Tice is on 22 per cent in a seat where the Tories, on 31, are just eight points behind Labour.

In North West Durham, the Conservatives could unseat Laura Pidcock. Tory Richard Holden is five points behind, but looks set to be denied by the Brexit Party on 11 per cent.

In Stoke-on-Trent North, where 72 per cent voted for Leave, Tory candidate Jonathan Gullis said: ‘It’s too close to call. The Conservatives are on 45 per cent, Labour on 40 and the Brexit Party on eight.’

Mr Farage insisted yesterday his party was helping the Tories by taking Labour votes in seats Mr Johnson cannot win.

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